Red Sox and Rangers Start Title Hunt

In 2011 the Yankees aren’t the only team telling themselves that the year will be a failure if they don’t win the World Series.  Both Boston and Texas are at the top of everyone’s lists to win their divisions and the fist game of the season for both teams can very well be a first round playoff match up.

Enough has been said over the last few months about the new Red Sox lineup and it goes live today in a big way in the hitter’s ballpark in Arlington. That’s the new name for the place, ‘The Hitter’s Ballpark at Arlington.” 

I’ve been alternately mocked and applauded for going out on a limb and saying that I think Jacoby Ellsbury will be in the hunt for the MVP this year with Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and the Ranger’s Josh Hamilton.  But it is my expectation that because he is finally healthy and will lead off for the best 1-6 hitters in all of baseball (yeah, I think the Boston lineup is more dangerous than the one in NY, maybe not more home run powerful, but definitely more dangerous) that Ellsbury will have a career year.

120+ runs scored, 70 stolen bases, a .310 average, and 90 RBI are not unreasonable numbers to expect from him. I also envision a move back to Centerfield at some point as I cannot see Mike Cameron sticking there all season, and that would put Ellsbury into one of the most important defensive positions in the game.  He may not hit 40 homers like Josh Hamilton, but Pedroia won an MVP a few years ago because of his overall impact on every game, which is the model I think Ellsbury’s year will take.

The Rangers probably won’t be as good this year with the loss of Cliff Lee, but they have a loaded lineup that will stomp through the AL West.  And with their new TV network getting ready to launch the Rangers are poised to take on salaries and make trades like the teams in the Northeast.

On the field today

Jon Lester has pitched better against the Rangers than his career average numbers.  In 7 games he’s gone 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA and gets almost a strike out per inning (48Ks in 49 innings pitched).  He’s the Boston Ace this year and while the team is starting a run for a World Series title, he’s in the hunt for the Cy Young.

Red Flag for Lester:  Going through the Ranger lineup I was surprised to see that the only person with more than ten career At Bats against him is Josh Hamilton (5-16 with a HR).  While that means they aren’t overly familiar with him, it also means there isn’t a large sample size to choose from so things could get a little shaky for Boston at times today.

CJ Wilson, the Ranger Pitcher, is only making his 4^th career start against the Red Sox, although he’s faced them 15 times total including relief appearances.  It’s scary when you see that in 31.2 innings he’s given up 16 hits and 17 walks.  His ERA is only 1.42, but you have to think that with so many base runners allowed he managed to get out of jams in the past that I don’t expect this Boston team to concede this year.

Expect the Red Sox to put a lot of men on base today, at an average of at least 1 base runner per inning.  And expect them to cash them in today.  I have to think that this is going to be a 7-4 win for Boston with Lester going into the 7^th inning.  Then we’ll really get to see if their new rotation can live up to their new lineup.

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